In the night from 24 to 25 November, the Bitcoin exchange rate fell below 4,000 US dollars. It has thus broken another long-term support. An analysis of the ongoing bear market.
The news spy did it again:
He fell, and the news spy did it dramatically. Meanwhile, its price is moving below the 4,000 US dollar mark. The Bitcoin rate thus fell back to levels last reached in September 2017. At that time, these prices were already a result of the news spy bear market induced by China.
Was the correction exaggerated? The markets seem to be slowly stabilizing again after the strong declines in October. Perhaps the correction to this extent would not have been necessary at all? Friedhelm Tilgen of n-tv is now talking about this with Daniel Lösche of the Schroders fund company.
This time, however, the situation is much more dramatic as a fundamental long-term support has been breached:
To emphasize the significance, once again in words: With the current dump a support valid since October 2015 was breached. Talking out the fact that such prices could not even have been dreamed of at the beginning of January 2017 would misjudge the drama of the current situation. We are in another level of the bear market.
But not only Bitcoin has fallen, the entire crypto market has crashed further. So far, so well known. But that XRP, Ripple’s crypto currency, which is increasingly decoupled from Bitcoin, shares this downward trend is new. While XRP could hold itself in the past weeks over the moving average value of the last 20 weeks, the current Abverkauf brought also the XRP course again on the soil of the facts:
On a positive note, however, the price continues to be higher than the support level pursued since mid-2017, which currently stands at 0.32 US dollars.
Bitcoin on the descent – What’s the next step?
How can it continue from here? In the short to medium term, the already mentioned price levels of 3,500 US dollars, 3,000 US dollars and 2,500 US dollars can be observed as new supports. For the long-term investor, however, the question is how things could continue.
The vernacular says so nicely that history does not repeat itself, but rhymes. So let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s share price history. The last bear market was from 2014 to 2016. Can we learn anything from that? A look at the weekly chart of the Bitcoin price between 2011 and 2018 shows an interesting behaviour:
The rhyme story can be seen in the recent price fall and that of late 2014: In both cases the moving average of the last 140 weeks has been broken. At the same time, another important support broke, which had been in place for three years in both cases.
For the Bitcoin price, the end of the bear market had not come, but it moved at least above the moving average of the last 200 weeks. This proved to be a sufficiently strong support, so that the Bitcoin price moved sideways again afterwards.
So we should keep a close eye on the MA200 in the weekly chart. Looking at the weekly chart above teaches us something: Besides the MA20 in the weekly chart, which is mentioned more often, the MA140 should be considered as fundamental resistance in current price levels. A sustained rise above the MA140 at the end of 2015 was the harbinger of the coming bull market. So let’s look at this sign!